TPRC 2024: The 52nd Research Conference on Communications, Information and Inter

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Abstract:
Space is getting crowded and policy tools for market design in satellite spectrum may be needed soon. Satellite radio spectrum does not fit neatly into a terrestrial auction model but that does not mean that market-oriented approaches are beyond reach. While satellite spectrum may incline toward command-and-control approaches, market design principles can help U.S. regulators keep pace with new deployments. This paper reviews the market participants, economic incentives, and policy options in several satellite and space proceedings at the FCC. I use a scoring method to apply market design thinking to analyze FCC proceedings on matters such as supplemental coverage from space, in-space assembly, manufacturing, and servicing, small satellites, satellite and earth stations, commercial space launch operations, earth stations in motion, and equivalent power flux density limits. The specific elements of each spectrum band are discussed with respect to economic factors relevant to innovation and competition among market participants.

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While there has been an explosive growth in investment and innovation in satellite technology throughout the last decade, earth stations, the terminals that establish terrestrial communication with satellites, have gone largely unnoticed despite their critical role.

Commercial earth stations are broadly divided between gateways and user terminals. Gateways, also known as teleports, are typically larger, stationary antennas connected to fiber, and are licensed on an individual basis. User terminals are relatively smaller antennas, which can be fixed or mobile, and are often granted on a blanket license basis. As of early March 2024, there were 9,665 current and 1,465 pending applications. C-band downlink with 28.9% and Ku-band uplink with 16.1% accounted for the majority of spectrum requests. SpaceX was the only filer to have any requests for the E-band, demonstrating that most of the extremely high frequencies still remain impractical for most applicants. California had the highest number of ground station sites with 354 followed by Georgia with 308, and Alaska with 261. When considering the natural hazard risk of 4,963 unique, fixed sites within the continental U.S., 23.1% are located in a place that faces an average high risk across various natural hazards. This risk rises dramatically in certain states with 73.3% of California and 71.5% of Florida ground stations facing an average high natural hazard risk. There were 75,845 conditions placed on granted ground station filings with the majority being verbatim restatements of part 25 regulations, obfuscating which conditions go beyond existing regulations. Lastly, no widely used condition was linked to a dramatically longer time delay for applicants with the average delay between filing and granting being a median of 118 days (~17 weeks). Overall, this research provides a first of its kind overview of U.S. ground station filings at a time of substantial shifts in the satellite industry.

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What will NASA’s future communications demand and expenditure look like? In this paper we consider this question, as NASA moves towards commercial procurement for Direct-To-Earth and Space Relay communication services. As part of this task, we undertake a literature review which considers the potential for internal market-based management accounting options for optimizing budgetary and network resources. Then we develop a new Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) model capable of evaluating the incremental cost over time to NASA of utilizing commercial communication services, for different mission and market scenarios. Three key conclusions are found. Firstly, NASA should explore activity-based cost accounting for managing internal communication resources, to ensure behavioral incentives are aligned with underlying delivery costs. Secondly, current and future NASA demand is a viable option from commercial services, with the potential to reduce cost through the use of non-exclusive networks and the sharing of fixed costs. Finally, in terms of market procurement, NASA should seek to award service contracts to 3-4 providers, as this level optimizes economies of scale benefits, while mitigating possible market collusion. These recommendations will enable NASA to successfully achieve its scientific mission over the next decade, while managing limited financial and networking resources.

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Space, "the final frontier," has become an attractive, but increasingly risky market for both public and private investments.  Gold rush enthusiasm anticipates solutions to the Digital Divide via small low earth orbiting satellites, extraction of valuable minerals from asteroids, a vibrant space launch and tourism industry, and expanding earth observation opportunities.  Such entrepreneurial boldness juxtaposes with a severe lag in government oversight, consumer safeguards, and essential operational guardrails. The ambitious plans of Elon Musk and other space entrepreneurs could fail, despite recent market success, as SpaceX’s plans for 148 rocket launches in 2024.


Without substantial refinement of global space treaties and effective national regulation, expanding and imprudent use of space resources could trigger "the tragedy of the commons," rendering the most valuable regions of space unusable. Satellites could collide, or strike orbiting debris at extremely high speeds. Accidental collisions are more likely in a crowded orbital region, such as 200-1200 miles above earth where low earth orbiting satellites operate.


A much more costly calamity can occur when a valuable, fully operational satellite collides with space debris, such as a deactivated satellite and launch stage, or when it becomes a target in a test of anti-satellite (“ASAT”) technology. The likelihood of a space object collisions increases substantially when space faring nations and private ventures do not nudge no longer useful objects upward, farther into deep space, or on a downward trajectory toward earth that would guarantee complete vaporization. The testing and future use of ASAT technology risks “weaponizing” space, despite treaty-level commitments to use it solely for peaceful purposes, benefitting everyone.


This paper explains how national governments have generated or tolerated the proliferation of space debris to potentially dangerous levels of space debris without penalty. The paper provides case study analysis of instances where space debris was generated by space object collisions and tests of anti-satellite technology. It also explains how intergovernmental agreements, such as the five space treaties administered by the United Nations, and the space/spectrum management agreements of the International Telecommunication Union, have not required space debris mitigation, nor sanctioned operators responsible for generating more space debris.



The failure to address and resolve proliferating space debris from ASATs and abandoned space objects will increase the potential for calamities that render space access too risky. The paper identifies how intergovernmental agreements can mandate space debris mitigation, impose sanctions for noncompliance, and create financial incentives for recycling and removing existing debris.

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Abstract:
Advancements in most information communication technologies are commonly assessed based on their potential impacts on global power dynamics. Notably, the emergence of mega satellite constellations is perceived as a strategic investment, serving dual purposes: strengthening a nation's presence in outer space and enhancing its influence and control over the critical infrastructure that supports the global Internet. The escalating global tensions related to cybersecurity and the subsequent initiatives aimed at asserting cyber sovereignty drive the geopolitical competition among spacefaring major powers to expand their space-based Internet infrastructure. However, this endeavor comes at a cost, as the proliferation of satellite constellations expands the environmental impact of Internet connectivity into outer space. It is crucial that the drive to assert dominance in Earth's orbits, already heavily congested, is tempered with an awareness of the need to preserve a sustainable orbital environment for the benefit of future generations. This research analyses whether major spacefaring nations' recent law and policy initiatives prioritise the geopolitics of Internet and national security goals rather than environmentally responsible and sustainable governance frameworks for outer space, particularly regarding the emerging mega-satellite constellations.

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Abstract:
Despite significant efforts to enhance digital connectivity in Canada's Far North, connectivity issues persist, particularly in small rural/remote communities. This paper provides a baseline study exploring the early-stage impact of Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite technology, Starlink, in addressing these connectivity issues. Historically, these communities have relied on costly and limited internet services, often depending on older DSL and satellite technologies. Although improvements like fibre backbone infrastructure have been made, many regions still struggle with connectivity. The recent emergence of LEO satellites presents a potential breakthrough due to their lower latency, higher bandwidth, and potentially reduced costs when compared to traditional geostationary satellites. However, available data on user experiences with LEO satellite services remains limited.

This paper reports preliminary findings from a baseline study conducted in the Northwest Territories (NWT) of Canada, where Starlink Internet services have recently become available. This research, part of a larger multi-year project funded by Indigenous Services Canada, presents findings from household surveys examining the perceived impacts of LEO connectivity on daily life in among end users living in two remote NWT communities: Aklavik and Lutselk’e. Results indicate that Starlink users experience better internet speed, reliability, and cost-effectiveness compared to non-users, with notable improvements in digital access and engagement in online activities. However, concerns remain about the affordability and reliability of these new services, particularly given high initial costs, lack of local technical support and potential impacts on economic development opportunities from Indigenous-led connectivity solutions.

The study highlights the potential of LEO satellites to bridge the digital divide in underserved regions, but also points to limitations and challenges that need addressing to maximize their benefits. Future research will continue to track user experiences and the broader impact of LEO technology on connectivity in remote Indigenous communities.